Economic Trends

Strategy Formation When Forecasts Can’t Be Trusted The uncomfortable truth: forecasts are often wrong—but still widely used. For decades, corporate strategy has been built on a deceptively simple assumption: the future can be forecast with enough precision to justify long-term commitments. That assumption is increasingly fragile. Across industries—from energy to aviation to technology—forecast error is […]

Strategic Readiness for the Next Economic Cycle Executive Summary Business cycles — long expansions followed by contractions — are a defining feature of market economies. Although the exact timing of the next downturn is uncertain, history and economic research confirm that recessions are neither rare nor random events. The organizational choices companies make during periods